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Indiana wants me--but which poll is correct?

After his momentum-raising romp through the northeast primary states, odds have risen that Donald Trump will reach a majority of delegates prior to the Republican convention. Now, all eyes turn to Indiana, which holds its primary on Tuesday, May 3rd.

 

The rules for this primary for Republicans (each party sets its own rules state by state) are as follows: three delegates will be awarded from each of the state's nine Congressional districts, with the candidate who receives the most voting in each district taking all 3 delegates therein.  The 30 other delegates will be awarded to the candidate who wins the most votes statewide.

 

And just in time to provide clarity here, two recent polls have reached two very different conclusions.

 

Trump has 41 percent support among likely GOP primary voters, the American Research Group poll found, followed by Ted Cruz, at 32 percent, and John Kasich, at 21 percent.  This seems to assert that Trump will carry the state easily, though the margin of error for this poll is 5 percentage points, which means it is "possible" that Trump has 36% and Cruz has 37%.

 

But the Texas senator leads the real estate mogul 45 percent to 29 percent according to a new poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trails in third place here with 13 percent, and 13 percent are undecided.  This poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent, which means Cruz has a clear lead even if his actual number is 40% and Trump's is 34%.  The pollster added a note of caution however, saying the race "was still in flux" due to undecided voters.

 

Most Indiana polls have had Trump in front by several percentage points.  Current Indiana Guv Mike Pence has endorsed Cruz, while former coach Bobby Knight has picked Trump.

 

If you're from the Hoosier State, make sure you vote.