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Is it Too Early to think about the 2020 Prez race?

Of course it's too early to think about the next US Presidential race when the winner of the last one has only been in office less than 100 days. Right?

 

But political markets, like financial ones, always focus on the future. It takes time to line up supporters, create some buzz, and raise some money--maybe A LOT of money. If your party holds the White House, the math is very simple--the incumbent President is the presumed nominee in four years, unless he says he's out. Few do.

 

For the party out of power, some soul-searching usually takes place in the wilderness. If you're Joe Biden, you wonder what would have been if you ran in 2016. If you're Bernie Sanders, you wonder if next time might be the charm, despite your advanced age (who can say what is "too old" anymore?)  And if you are Elizabeth Warren, you might wonder if 2020 is your moment to strike and take advantage of your national profile.  Younger Democrats might be looking for someone younger to take up the national party banner.

 

And if you're Mike Pence, you continue playing the good soldier, and think ahead (of course) to 2024.

 

But back to the present.  Recent news reports have documented the President's $7 million in funds already raised for 2020.  By comparison, President Obama at the same point in his first term had raised just $1.15 million.  So it's early, true, but the President seems to signal that the next race will not be a cheap one for the Democrats.  Of course, many Democrats say a person like Warren would have little trouble raising large sums of her own cash.

 

But relax, there's time, plenty of time.  For now, go watch some baseball?